Population Change

Why is the world’s population growing？The answer is not what you mightthink.The reason for the explosion is not that people have been reproducinglike rabbits,but that people have stopped dropping dead like flies.In1900,people died at the average age of 30.By 2000 the average age was 65.Butwhile increasing health was a tupical feature of the 20thcentury,declining birth rate could be a defining one of the 21st.

Statistics show that the average number ofbirths per woman has fallen from 4.9 in the early 1960s to 2.5 owadays.Furthermore,around50% of the world’s population live in regions where the figure is now below thereplacement level(i.e.2.1 births per woman)and almost all developed nations areexperiencing sub-repalanement birth rate.You might think that developing nationswould make up the loss(especially since80% of the world’s people now live insuch nations),but you’d be wrong,Declining birth rate is a major problem inmany developing regions too,which might cause catastrophic global shortages ofwork force within a few decades.

A great decline in young work force islikely to occur in China,for instance.What does it imply?First,China needs toundergo rapid economic development before a population decline hits thecountry.Sencond,if other factors such as technology remain constant,economicgrowth and material expectations will fall well below recent standards and thiscould invite trouble.

Russia is another country with populationproblems that could break its economic promise.Since 1992 the number of peopledying has been biggen than that of those being born by a massive 50%,Indeedofficial figures suggest the country has shrunk by 5% since 1993 and people inRussia live a shorter life now than those in 1961.Why is this occurring?Nobodyis quite sure,but poor diet an above all long-time alcoholism have much to dowith it.If current trends don’t bend.Russia’s population will be about the sizeof Yemen’s by the year 2050.

In the north of india,the population isbooming due to high birth rates,but in the south,where most econmoic developmentis taking place,birth rate is falling rapidly.In a further twist,birth rate ishighest in poorly educated rural arceas an lowest in highly educated urbanareas.In total,25% of India’s working-age population has no education.In 2030,asixth of the country’s potential work force could be totally uneducated.

One solution is obviously to import foreignworkers via immigration.As for the USA,it is almost unique among developednations in having a population that is expected to grow by 20% from2010-2030,Moreover,the USA has a track record of successfully acceptingimmigrants.As a result it’s likely to see a rise in the size of its working-agepopulation and to witness strong economic growth over the longer term.